What are the most and least secure states in Mexico? Where does someone run the greatest risk of being attacked in person and property by an organized or disorganized criminal?
The Executive Secretariat of the National Public Security System (SESNSP) publishes each month, both for the country as a whole and for each of the 32 Mexican states, a report indicating the crime incidence rate per 100,000 inhabitants (number of crimes committed per 100,000 inhabitants) for seven common law crimes: intentional homicide, femicide, kidnapping, extortion, burglary, auto theft, and robbery of a passerby.
According to the report issued on April 20, as far as intentional homicide is concerned, the national crime rate is 4.78, which is high if one takes into account that it only considers the number of murders perpetrated during the first four months of the year. anus.
For all of 2022, this rate was 20.19, the lowest so far in the government of President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, after having been 21.93 in 2021, 22.57 in 2020, and 23.30 in 2019. In 2018, the last year of the government of Enrique Peña Nieto, was 23.22.
It is convenient to remember that, according to the World Health Organization (WHO), a rate of 10 or more in a certain place means that there is an epidemic of murders there.
In which states of Mexico is the homicide rate equal to or higher than the national rate of 4.78 that has been recorded so far, and to which party does its governor belong? In these 12, from highest to lowest rate: Colima (20.59, MORENA), Morelos (14.11, MORENA), Zacatecas (13.77, MORENA), Baja California (12.35, MORENA), Chihuahua (11.55, PAN), Sonora (11.22, MORENA), Guanajuato (10.58, PAN), Guerrero (9.43, MORENA), Quintana Roo (8.06, MORENA), Michoacán (7.26, MORENA), Nuevo León (4.97, MC) and Oaxaca (4.78, MORENA). In these states, the probability of being murdered is higher than in the 20 whose intentional homicide rates are below the national rate.
These 20 are, from lowest to highest rate: Yucatán (0.26, PAN), Coahuila (0.78, PRI), Baja California Sur (1.06, MORENA), Durango (1.25, PRI), Aguascalientes (1.61, PAN), Chiapas (1.69, MORENA), Hidalgo (1.76, MORENA), Querétaro (1.84, PAN), Tamaulipas (2.11, MORENA), Mexico City (2.16, MORENA), Tlaxcala (2.17, MORENA), Veracruz (2.18, MORENA), Campeche ( 2.19, MORENA), Nayarit (2.24, MORENA), Tabasco (2.30, MORENA), Puebla (3.05, MORENA), State of Mexico (3.25, PRI), San Luis Potosí (3.93, PVEM), Sinaloa (3.93, MORENA) and Jalisco (3.98, MC).
In the president’s press conferences dedicated to public security, it is common to hear him and his secretaries of Citizen Security and Protection, Defense and the Navy, and the commander of the National Guard say that the five most dangerous states are Guanajuato, Mexico, Chihuahua, Baja California, and Sonora. In doing so, they are referring to the absolute number of murders, which is tricky because for comparative purposes the intentional homicide rate must be used. Thus, the five most dangerous are Colima, Morelos, Zacatecas, Baja California, and Chihuahua, and the least dangerous are Yucatán, Coahuila, Baja California Sur, Durango, and Aguascalientes.
Source: El Financiero